Aftermath

half a million:

total possible on all sides during the conflict and the following three
months could range from 48,000 to over a quarter of a million

subsequent civil war 20,000

add a further 200,000 to adverse effects

then a further 200,000 would be threatened after

civil conflict

legions of refugees

children's health

destruction of manufacturing and agriculture

not only the capital, but also surrounding areas uninhabitable for years
to come

oil industry, roads, bridges, communications, electricity supplies, water
and sewage systems, factories, warehouses and civilian homes
systematically destroyed by ordnance

conscious policy to destroy electricity generating facilities, together
with water storage and treatment amenities

series of devastating famines and epidemics

bombs deafen, blind and blow apart people, riddling them with shrapnel,
glass and debris, collapse buildings on victims, including hospitals and
clinics vital to treating the wounded, unexploded ordinance left behind
kills and maims, battlefield toxins contaminate the environment for
decades

downfall of regimes in surrounding nations

retaliatory action by Islamic fundamentalists

ripple effects

oil price hikes

trade reduction

disastrous effect upon the less developed nations

stuttering world economy tipped into deep prolonged recession

$150 billion to $200 billion on a conventional war

further $5 billion to $20 billion on subsequent occupation

longer-term cost could amount to as much as $600 billion

worst case scenario, including oil price spikes and OPEC intransigence
envisages costs of as much as $1.6 trillion

left to debate causes and responsibilities without an adequate information
base

"price worth paying"

Check my work:

According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the resident population of the
United States, projected to 12/13/2002 at 5:56:50 PM EST is 288,692,828.

According to a recent report by www.medact.org, the costs of a war in Iraq
could range from $600 billion - $1.6 trillion. The number of lives lost
(mostly Iraqi) could range from 250,000 - 500,000.

I. If we assume the purpose of war is to kill people, then we want to
maximize the number of lives lost while keeping costs (taxes) down.

I.I Therefore, a positive estimate posits 500,000 lives lost at a cost of
$600,000,000,000.
That's $1,200,000 per casualty.
Which costs $2078 per American.
One Iraqi dead for every 577 Americans.

I.II A negative estimate posits 250,000 lives lost at a cost of
$1,600,000,000,000.
That's $6,400,000 per casualty.
Which costs $5542 per American.
One Iraqi dead for every 1155 Americans.

II. If war serves some purpose other than killing, then we want to reduce
the number of lives lost while keeping costs (taxes) down, all within the
framework of successfully ensuring Iraq does not have weapons of mass
destruction/successfully ensuring Iraq does not have ties to Al
Quaeda/successfully ensuring that Saddam Hussein does not use chemical
weapons against his own people/successfully colonizing the region to
further Bush and his handlers' domination of global oil interests.

II.I A positive estimate posits 250,000 lives lost at a cost of
$600,000,000,000.
That's $2,400,000 per casualty.
Which costs $2078 per American.
One Iraqi dead for every 1155 Americans.

II.II A negative estimate posits 500,000 lives lost at a cost of
$1,600,000,000,000.
That's $3,200,000 per casualty.
Which costs $5542 per American.
One Iraqi dead for each 577 Americans.

Therefore, the most positive of all projected outcomes would have each
American pay $2078 in tax, in exchange for which they get minimal social
services and one thousandth of a Iraqi citizen, probably a civilian killed
by explosives.

And maybe, just maybe, we will sleep more soundly. But I doubt it.